We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Ben Clemens at FanGraphs ranks Alex Bregman third, and Keith Law at the Athletic ranks him fifth on their lists of the top 50 free agents.
Bregman is 30 (he turns 31 at the end of March). He’s played third base for the Astros for the last nine seasons. In those nine seasons, he’s totalled a 39.6 bWAR. Last year, he hit .260/.315/.453 with 26 home runs in a slightly down year. The last three years he’s had bWARs of 4.6, 4.9 and 4.1.
Defensively, he’s very good at third. This year, he won the Gold Glove (I’m not sure he deserved it, but he is good with the glove).
He’s always been kind of a favourite of mine (as much as any Astro can be a favourite of mine). He has the power the Jays need and likely the veteran presence thing (if you believe in that).
But he is getting older. This past year was a down year. His walk rate was way down (6.9% after 12.7% in 2023, right around his career number). His hard contact rate was down, with the soft contact rate up. Players have down years without it meaning anything, but it is worrying when it comes at 30.
Keith Law said:
Bregman hits free agency coming off the worst full season of his career, and while he did improve his offense in the second half, it was all power — he had a .316 OBP before the All-Star break and .315 after, which is easily the worst he’s posted. Long a fantastic fastball hitter, including in 2023, he collapsed against them in 2024, taking way more fastballs for strikes and fouling more off as well, as lost bat speed meant that he couldn’t turn on them like he used to.
Ben Clemens:
His walk rate dropped by nearly half this year, and his contact quality also dipped slightly. He’s never had sterling raw batted ball data, and without all the walks juicing his OBP, he’s one-dimensional at the plate; his lift-and-pull approach is great for tucking homers into the Crawford Boxes, but it produces plenty of weak fly outs too. This was his worst offensive season other than two flukes: an injury-shortened 2021 and his abbreviated 2016 debut. He played his normal excellent defense at third, which acts as a nice value buffer, but he looks more like a complementary bat than the guy you build your offense around these days.
Clemens figures he’ll get a five-year contract worth $28 million per year, for a total of $140 million.