Yesterday I went over the changes in the bullpen to see whether last year’s problems have been fixed. Today, let’s look at the rotation.
The Changes
Out: Yusei Kikuchi (115.2 IP, 4.75 ERA, 2.1 fWAR), Yariel Rodriguez (86.2, 4.47, 1.0), Alek Manoah (24.1, 3.70, 0.0)
Kikuchi was the Jay’s best pitcher through the first two months, and although his headline results tanked in June he retained strong BB and K rates. That was enough for the Astros to offer a big trade package for him. He was great in Houston down the stretch, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 starts, and parlayed that season into a 3 year, $63m contract with the Angels. His absence will be felt for sure, although it’s hard to argue with the trade return.
Rodriguez had an uneven year in the rotation. As I mentioned yesterday, I think he’s probably a player who will thrive in the bullpen but was stretched as a starter.
Manoah showed signs of bouncing back from his brutal 2023 early last year, but then went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in June. He’s apparently targeting an August return, but anything they get from him this year has to be considered a bonus.
Still Here: Kevin Gausman (181.0, 3.83, 2.9), Chris Bassitt (171.0, 4.16, 2.2), Bowden Francis (77.0, 2.92, 1.1), Jose Berrios (192.1, 3.60, 1.0)
The core of last year’s rotation returns intact. The trio of Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt has been as durable as any in the major leagues over the past two seasons, with all three ranking in the top 15 in innings pitched. The Jays will hope that that continues, although all three are now in their 30s and showed some concerning trends last season. Gausman lost some zip on his fastball and struggled to locate his splitter, with the result that he got a lot fewer chases and whiffs than previously. He’s always had a tendency to get hit hard, but when he’s effective he limits base-runners enough that the odd solo home run doesn’t do much damage. He’ll need to get back to that in 2025 to return to his front of the rotation role.
Bassitt struggled with his command, running a 9.2% walk rate that was his highest in six years. He still possesses his knack for avoiding hard contact and still gets enough Ks to get by, but again the Jays are left hoping for a late 30s bounce-back season. On the optimistic side, a lot of the issues stems from a rough April and a few starts in September in which he looked out of gas. For the middle portion of the season he looked like something approaching his usual self.
Berrios had the opposite problem. He continued to limit walks, but for the second time in three full seasons as a Blue Jay he just lost his ability to miss bats. There’s no obvious culprit, with his velocity basically unchanged and only small drift in his pitches’ shape, so hopefully it was a blip. If it wasn’t, though, expect significant regression from last year’s strong ERA.
If there’s some reason to worry about the veterans, there’s hope in the form of last year’s breakout star. Francis added a splitter and a sinker to his repertoire last season while de-emphasizing his curveball, and the result was a huge step forward. He posted a 2.92 ERA after his move to the rotation, and while that isn’t likely to repeat in 2025 he profiles as an above average starter on the basis of four solid pitches and plus command.
In: Max Scherzer (43.1, 3.95, 0.6), Jake Bloss (11.2, 6.94, -0.3)
The Scherzer addition ensures that the Jays have locked up the title of oldest rotation in the league. Mad Max, who turns 41 in July, lost most of last season to injuries. He’s apparently healthy now, though, and if he can produce even at last year’s level on a per inning bases he should be a significant addition to the middle of the rotation. If he can recapture earlier form, his one year contract could look like a steal. It’s a risk, but a team like the Jays stuck on the fringes of competition probably needs to roll the dice in a few places and hit if they want to have a chance.
Bloss, who probably slots in as the 7th starter right now, was the main return for Kikuchi. The 2023 third round pick was rushed through Houston’s system to fill a gap in the big league squad’s rotation. He was out of his depth in the majors, which isn’t surprising for a guy with 104 pro innings to his name, but his deep repertoire and solid command should hold up once he’s had a bit more seasoning in Buffalo, and he ought to be ready as a high quality depth option later in the season.
The Outlook
This is an old group, with the projected starting five averaging over 34 years old on opening day. All have question marks. Last year’s group was 11th in innings pitched and 17th in adjusted ERA, for a middle of the pack overall performance. It’s not hard to see how they could do better in 2025, with mild bounce backs from Gausman and Bassitt and Scherzer being more healthy than not. It’s also not hard to see a world in which age catches up to a couple of them, the replacements struggle, and they’re a bottom third group. Fangraphs projects them 19th in baseball, although it’s worth noting that two of the five (Bassitt and Francis) are significant FIP out-performers and so probably undervalued a bit by fWAR. As with the bullpen, it feels like a middle of the pack projection is reasonable but that in reality it’s more likely that they either overachieve and turn in a borderline top 10 performance or fall apart.