This week, I’ve been looking over the roster to assess what the Jays have done to fix their roster after last season’s debacle. The bullpen was last season’s single biggest problem, and has been the location of the largest number of changes this winter. The rotation is more stable, albeit with some performance questions, and Max Scherzer addressed the need for depth.
Today, I want to look at the outfield situation. The Jays’ outfielders actually fared tolerably well last season. Their 5.7 WAR wasn’t great, but it was enough for a perfectly middle of the pack 15th place. Taking a more detailed look, best-in-MLB defence and some nice base running covered for the fact that the offence was a disaster, with an 85 collective wRC+ that was 26th in the league. On a team that was 23rd in scoring the guys patrolling the grass were the biggest issue.
The Changes
Out: Kevin Kiermaier (53 wRC+, 7.6 combined defensive and base running runs above average, 0.3 fWAR), Cavan Biggio (82, 1.0, 0.2)
The Jays had a lot of success pulling Kiermaier off the scrap heap in 2023. He played more than he had in five years, and hit better than he had in seven. Bringing him back in 2024 proved to be going to the well one too many times, though, and they had to unload him at the deadline. Kiermaier is a free agent, and while he might catch on on a minor league deal if he wants to, I think his big league career is probably pretty much over.
Biggio had a good run in Toronto. He posted 6.4 WAR over parts of six seasons after being drafted in the fifth round back in 2016. His hitting collapsed in 2024, though, and while he posted good base running and solid defensive numbers it just isn’t enough to overcome a strikeout rate that crept over 30%. He’s caught on with the Royals on a minor league deal, so hopefully he can bounce back, but it won’t be in Toronto.
Still Here: Daulton Varsho (99, 15.7, 3.3), George Springer (94, -3.4, 1.1), Davis Schneider (77, 0.0, 0.2), Joey Loperfido (57, -0.8, -0.3)
Varsho had an interesting year. He bounced back from his rough offensive 2023 by doubling down on lifting and pulling the ball. It paid off, with power gains outweighing a further drop in his batting average, and his average offensive showing was back in line with his career. His StatCast metrics point to a significant regression in 2025, although his approach is now so extreme that it might just not be well accounted for by the models (which don’t look at pull angles). Regardless, his defence remains exceptional and gives him a floor as a solid player even if he struggles at the plate. He’ll miss the beginning of the season recovering from a shoulder surgery.
The largest contract in franchise history hasn’t turned out as hoped. George Springer was good his first two seasons in Toronto, but has now struggled two seasons in a row and at age 35 it’s now getting late to expect a return to form. On the positive side, his StatCast data suggests he was somewhat unlucky last year, and he still controls the zone and makes a good amount of contact, so it’s possible he has one more solid performance in him. The ceiling is a quality regular, though. His star days are definitively over. If he struggles, watch for Barger or possibly Alan Roden to start eating into his playing time.
Schneider was a great surprise in 2023. The 28th round pick had to hit his way up every rung of the ladder, and once he forced his way onto the major league roster was as responsible as anyone for powering the team’s wildcard run that year. The magic wore off in 2024, though. After a hot first two months he was unplayably bad from June onward. Schneider has real skills. His plate discipline is excellent, and he’s very good at barreling the ball up. Like Varsho, he sells out to lift and pull the ball, allowing his fringe raw power to play up. He’s a bad contact hitter, though, with an in-zone whiff rate in the 15th percentile, and the raw power really is fringe at best. When everything’s just right, he either takes a pitch he likes and lofts it down the line for a home run or just takes a walk if the pitcher won’t give in. If anything’s just a little off, though, pitchers can attack him in the zone and if he makes contact he just flips medium depth fly balls for easy outs. It’s a much narrower path than more physically gifted hitters have to tread. I wouldn’t give up on him completely just yet, but he probably needs to spend the beginning of the season rediscovering his swing in Buffalo, and might just have been a flash in the pan.
Loperfido was part of the return for Yusei Kikuchi. He’s a premium athlete, with plus speed and power, but might not hit enough to play every day. That issue was on display after the trade, as he struck out 36% of the time after arriving in Toronto. He managed to hit enough for his power to carry him all the way up through the minors, so he deserves a real shot to figure it out. He’ll likely get it as he fills in for Varsho early in the season. He’s not a gold glover like the guy he’s covering for, but should be average or a bit better in centre and a plus in a corner.
Others: Addison Barger didn’t hit at all in his debut, but the underlying contact and power numbers were promising. He needs to dial in his plate discipline, but had shown the ability to adapt his approach in the minors. He might not stick at third, but his huge arm should be an asset in right field. Nathan Lukes is a career minor leaguer who impressed once he finally got his shot. At 30, he’s not going to suddenly blossom into a regular, but he controls the zone and makes a ton of contact, and he’s solid in the field, so he probably has a role as a fourth outfielder. Steward Berroa might be in that mix too, although he’ll be further down the depth chart. Jonatan Clase came over from Seattle in the Yimi Garcia trade. He’s tooled up and has already made his MLB debut, but the 23 year old needs at least another season in AAA to refine his game on both sides of the ball.
The New Guys: Anthony Santander (129, -12.3, 3.3), Myles Straw (40, 0.2, 0.0)
Santander is the centrepiece of the Jays’ off-season. After a career year in Baltimore, he signed for five years and $92.5m (which is reduced to a little under $70m with deferrals accounted for). Santander is a pretty straightforward slugger. He doesn’t run well and is below average (though not an albatross) in either left or right field. He doesn’t walk much, but does actually make a pretty good amount of contact. He got paid because about 35 times a year that contact is going to wind up in the bleachers. Years 4 and 5 of this deal likely won’t look great, but for now Santander represents badly needed pop without costing too much on defence or the base paths. He should be a huge asset in 2025.
I have to list Straw, but I somewhat doubt we see more than a cameo in Toronto. He was acquired along with $2m in international bonus pool space in a salary dump from Cleveland. Straw is a terrific defender, but hasn’t hit even a little in three years now. He has six home runs in almost four seasons worth of MLB playing time, and doesn’t make up for his noodle bat with lots of contact or even a decent number of walks. His glove and speed and the fact that he’s guaranteed about $12m over the next two years (a chunk of which Cleveland is paying) might land him a fifth OF spot, but not more.
The Outlook
They needed an infusion of offence, and Santander is it. Barring injury, he should more than double the combined 1.3 WAR provided by non-Varsho/Springer outfielders last year. Whether the overall group is better depends on Varsho coming back strong and Springer bouncing back at least a little bit.
The outfield doesn’t seem like a major strength, although another very good year from Santander and some luck and it could be. It should be solid, though, enough to reinforce the performance of the infield, where the Jays real stars play.