Previously, we’ve looked at the bullpen, the rotation, and the outfield. Finally, in today’s (excessively long, sorry) final edition, let’s take a look at what’s up with the heart of this version of the Jays: the infield.
The Changes
Out: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (118 wRC+, 4.8 combined base running and defensive runs above average, 2.1 WAR), Danny Jansen (94, -0.2, 0.6), Justin Turner (112, -11.5, 0.5), Spencer Horwitz (127, -6.2, 1.9)
Signing IKF proved to be a nice bit of business for the Jays front office. He had the hottest stretch of his career at the plate in the first half, and they were able to flip him for slugging outfield prospect Charles McAdoo before he turned back into an offensive pumpkin in the second half. Players of IKF’s profile (plus glove, little offensive impact infielders) litter the current roster, so he’s unlikely to be missed.
More likely to have his absence felt is Danny Jansen. The 2013 16th round pick had been a staple of the roster for most of seven seasons. Repeated injuries have kept him from ever establishing himself as a top catcher in the league, but when healthy and in a groove he hit at an All Star level for a solid defender behind the plate. He’ll play for the Rays this season on a pillow contract as he tries to stay healthy and re-establish his value.
Justin Turner was an attempt to recreate the Brandon Belt magic and get one more good year out of a fading slugger. It didn’t really work, although he did just enough to bring a little back in trade. Right now DH looks to he a rotation, but the options in house should be able to surpass Turner’s performance last year.
Spencer Horwitz’s departure is a shock. The 26 year old rookie had just established himself as an offensive force, with great plate discipline and load of solid contact making up for a lack of prototypical power for an offence first player. He has limitations, including a lack of impact against left handed pitching and defence that’s fringe at best at second and nothing to write home about at first, but a 127 wRC+ is what it is, and only about 50 players in the league project to hit better in 2025. They might find that production hard to replicate.
Others: Luis De Los Santos is a Met, Brian Serven is a Tiger, and Dan Vigelbach is unemployed. If any are missed, they have bigger problems.
Still Here: Vladimir Guerrero jr. (165, -21.3, 5.5), Bo Bichette (71, 3.1, 0.3), Leo Jimenez (102, -1.6, 0.6), Ernie Clement (94, 8.8, 2.2), Alejandro Kirk (94, 16.9, 2.8), Will Wagner (125, 0.5, 0.6), Orelvis Martinez (3 PA), Tyler Heineman (13 PA).
More than at any point in the past six years, this is Vlad’s team. He needs to be in the MVP mix for the Jays to be relevant. Luckily, he’s coming off a season where after a mediocre April he hit .345/.412/.590 and looked like he deserved all of it. Personally, I think they should pay him.
Bo had, until last season, been the more consistent of the Jays’ young stars. Last season, though, he was a mess before calf injuries ended his season. It seems like there’s tension between him and the front office and that this will probably be his last season in Toronto. That’ll be sad, but they’ll need one more all star performance from him in the meantime.
Leo Jimenez is probably the front runner to inherit Bo’s job. In the meantime he’ll be a utility man this year. Jimenez had some unexpected struggles with his contact and plate discipline in his MLB debut, but covered for it with more power than expected and his signature knack for getting drilled (16 times in 210 PAs!) to post a solid line anyway. If he gets his feet under him, there’s potential for an above average line powered by strong OBP, paired with above average defence at short. He’s not Bo, but he might be a solid regular.
Clement was a pleasant surprise. The 28 year old career spare infielder swings at everything and almost always hits it, but a focus on pulling balls in the air allowed his minimal power to play up, fuelling a nearly average line. With plus D at third and a little speed, that’s a borderline everyday guy. He’ll enter as the incumbent at third, though he’ll probably wind up sharing reps with Orelvis Martinez and/or Addison Barger, who possess a little more offensive upside.
Speaking of Orelvis. He’s back from a PED suspension, though probably still in the organizational doghouse about it. He has loads of power and a swing that gets to every ounce, but contact and discipline are both worries. Expect an average near .200 and an OBP that might not crest .300, but if his slugging starts with a 5 or gets close it could all still work. He might also ultimately move to right field, like Barger, but will probably be forced to try and fail at third before they make that move.
Kirk has turned into a very good regular, although not how we expected. The special combo of power and contact that made him a top prospect hasn’t really translated to the majors, although there were some encouraging signs under the hood last year. He’s become an elite defender, though, with excellent framing, good blocking, and as of last year surprisingly strong control of the running game (batters tried him a lot, 87 times, but he gunned 27 down for a nice 69% success rare allowed). This will be Kirk’s first season as the clear #1, with only Tyler Heineman backing him up. He’s never started 90 games behind the plate before. This year he’ll have to do that while consolidating last year’s improvements. If he does, he’ll have emerged as one of the top catchers in the league.
On the subject of Heineman, he’ll all but certainly play more games in ‘25 than he has since 2022. He’s not an MLB hitter, with a .571 career OPS that he shows no signs of improving, but he also grades out as a very good defender. I’m nervous about being in a position where any Kirk injury would force him to play every day, but as a backup he does enough with the glove to get by.
Finally, Will Wagner. If they were comfortable letting Horwitz go, it’s because they have a credible replacement in house. The son of newly minted Hall of Famer Billy, Will has terrific contact skills, whiffing just 6.6% of the time on pitches in the zone in his debut, and pairs it with average raw power that’s more than Horwitz can boast. Wagner can’t quite match his predecessor’s eye for the zone, but he’s not undisciplined himself and his surface line of .305/.337/.451 is fully backed by underlying skills. As with Horwitz, you might want to hide him from tough lefties and he doesn’t have a great positional fit, but if he hits like he can he’s a bat you find a place for.
In: Andres Gimenez (83, 17.9, 2.8)
The return for Horwitz and, arguably, the biggest move of the winter given that he has about as much money and term remaining on his contract as Santander does. Gimenez is a special defender, with the second highest Outs Above Average in baseball over the past three seasons (any position). He’s also 12th in stolen bases over that time, with 80, and more efficient than all but two of the guys ahead of him. In the whole sport, only Dansby Swanson has produced more value without the bat in his hands.
It’s the “bat in his hands part” wherein lies the rub. His 105 wRC+ over the span is pretty good for an infielder, but it’s fuelled entirely by a red hot 2022 that looks like a fluke when compared to the rest of his career. Remove it, and his 90 wRC+ is 11th from the bottom among 118 qualified hitters in the past two seasons combined.
Gimenez is somewhere between a plus regular and a star even with his weak hitting because he excels so much everywhere else. If he can get back even to average he’s an easy All Star, and at 26 he’ll be in his prime through the end of his contract. It’s an odd fit to add yet another all glove no bat player to this roster, though, especially at the expense of last year’s second best hitter.
The Outlook
The Jays’ position player corps posted 22.7 fWAR last season, 11th best in the league. That was fuelled mostly by 17.0 from the infield, where strong years from Vlad, Horwitz, Clement and Kirk plus credible fill in work from IKF and Jimenez carried a down year from Bo. It’s the only unit on the team that really lived up to expectations. They’ll need to do the same and more this year for the club as a whole to bounce back. I like the collection of players they have, and outside catcher they even have some credible depth. A return to form from Bo and a little better hitting from Gimenez and this could be one of the better groups in the league.