The Jays came 8th in this afternoon’s MLB draft lottery. They entered with a 7.48% chance at the first overall pick, the 5th best odds, so this is a bad break, with three teams moving past them.
The Jays’ picks will be:
- 1st Round, 8th overall
- 2nd Round, roughly 50th. There are 8 competitive balance and probably 4 QO free agent compensation picks between rounds 1 and 2. This is the pick the Jays would forfeit for signing a qualified free agent.
- 3rd Round, roughly 88th. The other 7 competitive balance picks and one more comp pick go between rounds 2 and 3.
- 4th Round, roughly 118th
- 5th Round, roughly 155th. The final comp picks, likely 7 of them, go between rounds 4 and 5.
- 6th and later: roughly 185th and 8th in each round thereafter.
It’s too early to say who’ll be taken with the 8th pick, but the draft seems to have a clear top two right now, with less clarity beyond that. The top 10, per Baseball America’s most recent draft preview:
- Jace Laviolette, LHB OF, Texas A&M: There’s only one Aaron Judge, but Laviolette does as credible an impression as anyone. The outfielder stands a chiselled 6’6” and possesses near top of the scale power along with a sound approach and solid contact ability for a player his size. He’s a good athlete and acquits himself well in centre field right now, but his size will likely move him to right at some point.
- Ethan Holliday, LHB SS, HS (Oklahoma): Son of Matt and brother of 2022 first overall pick Jackson. Ethan is bigger than his brother and may move to third in the long run, but he looks like he’ll hit more than enough to still profile as a star there, with big power and an excellent approach.
- Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara: Bremner is a polished all-around pitcher, who sits 93-96 with his fastball with good life and pairs it with an easy plus change up and a slider that should also be a plus weapon with development. He’s a good athlete with strong command who looks like a high end workhorse #2 starter.
- Jamie Arnold, LHP, FSU: The former teammate of Jays 2024 second rounder Khal Stephen gets it up to 97 from a low arm slot with elite horizontal run. A plus slider and potentially plus command give him #2 upside.
- Seth Hernandez, RHP, HS (California): The prototype high school power pitcher. Hernandez touches 98 right now with a big 6’4”, 190lb frame that suggests even more is coming. He pairs it with a change-up that’s already one of the best amateur off-speed pitches in the country and a power curve that needs development but has plenty of potential. Like all elite high school pitchers, he could be anything between Justin Verlander 2.0 and “maybe he’ll put it together this year” on his fourth tour of A ball.
- Cam Cannarella, LHB OF, Clemson: an excellent athlete with standout speed, terrific feel for contact, and an all fields line drive approach, Cannarella could lead off, add value on the bases, and put up plus numbers in centre field. At 6’0’ and 170lbs, he might not have the over the fence power to be a superstar, but he’s got enough to be a threat.
- Xavier Neyens, LHB 3B, HS (Washington): Neyens stands 6’4” and already weights in at 200lbs. He has plus raw power now and will likely get to a 70 on the 20-80 scale. He has a very good approach at the plate, but his lofted swing trades some contact to get to all of that power. He’s not a great runner but has the hands and arm to stay at third.
- Devin Taylor, LHB OF, Indiana: Taylor has plus bat speed and power and a strong approach. He should be a very good all around offensive player, enough to be a high end starter even though he’s probably a left fielder.
- Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP/1B, HS (Oregon): Even bigger than Laviolette at 6’8” and 215lbs, Schoolcraft gets up to 97 on the mound with potential for more. He has three pitches and some feel, although as you’d expect for a guy his size his control and command are somewhat raw. He’s also got 70 or better raw power at the plate and some feel to hit, though with levers as long as his he necessarily has come contact issues. He’s a good athlete and should be a plus defender at first who could also likely handle right field just fine.
- Billy Carlson, SS/RHP, HS (California): Carlson is a true shortstop, with soft hands and quick feet and, as the ‘/RHP’ part above suggests, a gun for an arm. He has a very good approach and makes tons of contact, and on last year’s showcase circuit was starting to show some ability to elevate the ball and get to some power. On the mound, his athleticism shines, allowing him to throw a lot of strikes with a fastball that touches 97 and a change and curve that both have above average potential.