Kevin Gausman has looked like Kevin Gausman so far this spring.
It’s only been two starts, but the Toronto Blue Jays ace is miles ahead of where he was this time last year, where his build-up toward the regular season was delayed by right shoulder fatigue — an injury that followed him for most of 2024.
Gausman never required an IL stint. However, in retrospect, he should’ve begun last season on the mend rather than forcing himself to play catch-up throughout the schedule’s first half, especially considering he endured an underwhelming performance that included a 3.83 ERA and 3.77 FIP in 31 starts, with a strikeout rate (21.4 per cent) that fell nearly 10 per cent — the second-largest year-to-year decline in the sport, trailing only former Blue Jays reliever Trevor Richards, whose K rate plummeted by 10.9 per cent from ’23.
Fast-forward to this spring, though, the 34-year-old righty has been nothing short of dominant since making his spring debut on March 5 against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
While it was a brief outing, Gausman made the most of all 38 pitches he threw in his first live game of the spring, retiring five of the six batters he faced across his 1.2 innings of work. The only batter to reach safely against him was Oneil Cruz, who earned a first-inning walk sandwiched around the veteran righty’s lone strikeouts in the contest.
And it was more of the same on Monday versus the Houston Astros. Despite being tagged for three runs, all in the third inning, Gausman struck out the side on 12 pitches (nine strikes) in the opening frame and added another punchout in the second while retiring three of the four hitters who stepped to the plate.
Given how last spring unfolded, the two-time All-Star — likely targeting four up-downs in his next Grapefruit League outing — couldn’t have asked for a better start to camp thus far. Of course, spring training is less about the results and more focused on a player’s process than anything else.
So, that’s precisely where we’ll turn our attention to next as we dissect Gausman’s promising start to 2025.
Among the most prominent issues he encountered last season was inconsistent fastball velocity. Sometimes it was 94-95 m.p.h., others it was his usual 96-97 and occasional 98. But far too often, his heater looked off. In certain outings, it sat in the low 90s and periodically dropped even further than that, mainly out of the gate.
For reference, Gausman’s four-seamer averaged 95.1 m.p.h. in his lone spring training start ahead of the ’24 campaign, and he came in just under that figure at 94.5 during his regular season debut. In his next start, however, he suffered a major dropoff and only averaged 91.7 m.p.h. with his heater.
The 6-foot-2 starter’s velocity has been far more encouraging this spring, though. In comparison, he’s unleashed several 95 and 96 m.p.h. fastballs across a pair of starts, averaging in the mid-90s during each of his outings.
But where he’s been locating most of his four-seamers early in camp has been just as important as its radar gun readings.
A season ago, Gausman poured his efforts into attacking the lower quadrant of the strike zone with his fastball, doing so nearly more times than any other season in his professional career. It was a continued effort to keep opponents honest against his knee-breaking splitter. Unfortunately, that game plan ultimately had a negative effect.
By focusing on the bottom third of the zone, the former AL Cy Young finalist had a tough time landing his four-seamer in the upper quadrant amidst a season-long battle with his mechanics. That made it easier for opposing hitters to create damage against it, especially given its reduced velocity, resulting in a .278 OPP AVG and .462 SLG — both significant jumps from its ’23 results.
Similar to Gausman’s velocity bump, it’s also been a different story for his ability to command the strike zone this spring. He’s continued to pound the bottom of the zone with his four-seamer. But unlike last season, he’s been far more effective at drawing even with the letters in the upper quadrant during his early sample size.
There’s no hiding how Gausman wants to attack hitters. It’s up with his four-seamer and low with his splitter. That’s his bread and butter. When he’s tunnelling both pitches effectively, that’s when he’s able to produce elite levels of swing-and-miss. And that deployment was a key part of his success during his first two seasons with the Blue Jays.
Of course, baseball is a game of constant adjustments. Gausman had to change on the fly after hitters stopped swinging at his splitter two years ago. Most caught on to the fact that if they saw a pitch low, it was his off-speed offering. So, to use an old analogy, if they saw it high, they let it fly. If they saw it low, they let it go.
That’s why Toronto’s ace started throwing more fastballs at the knees in ’23, spotting close to 350 heaters in the bottom-third quadrant — the most of his career since ’16. It’s a strategy that proves more effective with higher velocity, giving opposing batters less time to react once they realize it’s a four-seamer coming at them rather than a splitter.
With Gausman seemingly returning to form with his fastball velocity this spring, there’s now an encouraging sense that he’ll be able to regain his dominant one-two punch in ’25.
Not only is that a promising development regarding his four-seamer, but it’s also incredibly significant for his splitter, which, despite featuring the fourth-highest run value (37) of any pitch in baseball from 2022-23, could badly use a spark in production after taking a major step back last season.
| Whiff% | In-Zone Whiff% | Chase% | |
| 2022 | 44.1% | 30.1% | 50.5% |
| 2023 | 43.2% | 28.9 | 40.5% |
| 2024 | 33.5% | 16.7% | 37.1% |
Another encouraging sign that may help Gausman improve last season’s 23.4-per-cent whiff rate, a career-worst mark that ranked in the 33rd percentile of the majors, is the new wrinkle he’s added to his slider — a pitch he’s throwing harder, now in the 87-88 m.p.h. range, up from his ’24 average of 83, and with tighter horizontal break.
It’ll undoubtedly remain his third-best pitch this season behind his four-seamer and splitter. However, there’s the potential for his breaking ball to miss a few more bats compared to ’24, where it produced a swing-and-miss in just over a quarter of the 42 plate appearances against it. And it certainly displayed plenty of promise versus the Astros on Monday, inducing three whiffs on four swings.
The truth is the Blue Jays need Gausman to return to the hurler he was during the ’22 and ’23 seasons, operating as a five-win pitcher per FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) in each of those years. They’re counting on him to lead this rotation back to the playoffs in ’25, and he’s likely the only pitcher on this roster capable of doing so.
Toronto stands to feature a deep starting staff this season, at least at the major league level. But whether or not they finish among baseball’s top-tier class will be heavily swayed by Gausman’s performance. That isn’t to discredit the value of José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer or Bowden Francis. Those four will play important roles, too. But none of them has the front-line value that the club’s ace does.
That’s an element the Blue Jays sorely missed a season ago, with Gausman finishing one decimal point shy of serving as a three-win pitcher. He compiled a respectable performance, particularly with how strong he finished down the stretch. For his elite standards, though, it was a considerable step below where he was from 2021-23.
Based on his promising showing in camp, the early signs point to Gausman enjoying a notable bounce-back campaign this season, a badly needed performance that would silence those who wondered if his poor ’24 results were the beginning of a Father Time-related decline.