Despite some big misses, the Toronto Blue Jays have had a decent offseason and appear to be a better team than they were four months ago. Adding a power bat in Anthony Santander, three different relievers, infielder Andres Gimenez, and the latest signing, right-hander Max Scherzer, have made the Jays a much different squad on paper heading into the new season.
However, the biggest and most obvious move has yet to be made. The team has yet to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term extension, and if the two sides can’t agree before Vladdy’s self-imposed deadline of February 18th, much of the work this winter will feel overshadowed by comparison.
After a bitterly disappointing 2024 season, it was clear that some big swings were needed to field a competitive team this year – especially with the core group of players all destined for free agency over the next few seasons. Fixing one of the worst bullpens in the majors, giving Guerrero some protection in the lineup, and increasing the rotation and catcher depth were the top priorities, but if a megadeal with the homegrown superstar isn’t struck this offseason, it will feel all for naught.
“He has a lot of skills referred to as ‘old man skills’. I think the guy will actually age better than you think he will.”@kileymcd joins @JDBunkis to break down why Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes sense for a long-term contract. #TOTHECORE
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— Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) February 4, 2025
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The first effort to improve the roster was a bit puzzling, but if things go well, it could pay dividends.
The Jays traded Spencer Horwitz and minor-league outfielder Nick Mitchell to the Cleveland Guardians for infielder Andrés Giménez and relief pitcher Nick Sandlin. Gimenez is known as one of the best defensive middle infielders in the game, but he hasn’t come close to replicating his terrific, All-Star season of 2022 and was one of the lowest-ranked qualified hitters a season ago. Sandlin has been a solid contributor out of Cleveland’s bullpen over the last four years (3.27 ERA in 195.1 innings from 2021-2024) and his advanced numbers tell the story of a pitcher who can miss bats (33.7% whiff rate) and be effective with off-speed stuff (97th percentile in offspeed run value) while also being susceptible to some hard contact and a high walk rate.
There’s no doubt that Sandlin and Yimi Garcia, who was re-signed days after the trade, will revamp the relief corps. So too will Jeff Hoffman, who was brought in after Jordan Romano was non-tendered and then joined the Phillies. Anthony Santander is the kind of slugger who could join forces with Guerrero to generate considerable thump near the top of the lineup and signing Max Scherzer to round out the rotation is a gamble that could be worth the risk if the 40-year-old has enough left in the tank. Ali Sanchez and Christian Bethacourt are under-the-radar transactions that could prove valuable as competition for the backup catcher spot, alongside Tyler Heineman.
As good as some of these moves are, it’s fair to wonder if the club has done enough to convince Guerrero to sign off on an extension fans have been asking about for years. Both sides have reportedly been engaged in conversation this winter and Guerrero went on a podcast last December to air out some details from the back-and-forth negotiations (both past and present). For what it’s worth, it seems like the slugger wants to stay if the Blue Jays are willing to hit the financial terms he is wishing for, which could be genuine or a tactic to leverage against the team. Factor in that ownership wants to keep Guerrero around and it seems like its a match made for the future, although the business side of the game tends to get in the way of things.
Blue Jays need to sign Vlad Guerrero Jr longterm making him, at 26, one of MLB’s highest total value contracts. On Exit Philosophy, @mromanin and I explain. For full episode, including Top 5 list of Jays C’s, go to YT or where you get podcasts. Like, Subscribe and review pic.twitter.com/AbnJrpVkmM
— Richard Griffin (@RGriffBaseball) December 22, 2024
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The consensus is that the trade and signings were necessary to make the Jays a competitive team, not a contending one, and that’s with Guerrero in the fold. If the two sides can’t come together on a long-term pact, the progress made since the end of last season will be heavily diminished. This is only compounded by the other impending departures of Chris Bassitt, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and a laundry list of roster players over the next few years, signalling a rebuild may be on the horizon. The fan base will be feeling angry, betrayed, and apathetic and while those who wish ill will on general manager Ross Atkins will likely get their wishes fulfilled in his firing, the Jays will likely be heading back to a rebuild. Failing to extend Guerrero also sends a message that the franchise is either unwilling or unable to retain its star players whether it is because of valuations or contract negotiation tactics, which will only hurt team-building in the future.
Players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. come around only every so often. The son of a Hall-of-Famer with a similar skill set, who was also born in Canada, makes his place on the Blue Jays even more special. Failing to hold on to him while fellow stalwart Bo Bichette also appears halfway out the door will officially close the competitive window on this era without a single playoff win. As impressive of an offseason it has been even with the missed signings of players like Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, and Corbin Burnes, without Guerrero on the books for the foreseeable future, next winter will make for short memories as the club watches one of their top players gear himself towards free agency.
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