tThe Toronto Blue Jays finished last in the American League East last year at 74-88. However, the Baseball Prospectus forecast for 2025 is a little more promising. The annual PECOTA’s projections from Baseball Prospects are out, and they see the Blue Jays improving to a winning record.
The Blue Jays are projected to finish in third place in the AL East, with an aggregate simulated record of 84.5-77.5. The record would see the Blue Jays falling short of the final Wild Card spot, behind the Seattle Mariners (third Wild card spot), Houston Astros (second Wild Card spot) and Baltimore Orioles (first Wild Card spot).
Editors note: PETCOA’s projections do not factor in any more offseason additions.
Blue Jays PECOTA Projections Overview
PECOTA’s projections have the AL division winners as the New York Yankees (89.7-72.3), Minnesota Twins (86.2-72.8 in an AL Central where one other team is at .500 or better), and the Texas Rangers (89.3-72.7). Under those projections, the Blue Jays would have the seventh-best record in the AL, behind only the Mariners, Twins, Astros, Orioles, Rangers and Yankees.
The projections give the Blue Jays a 49% chance of making the postseason. For comparison, the Astros have a 63.4% chance, while the Yankees hold a 78.2% chance.
As far as output, PECOTA projects the Blue Jays will score 742 runs and allow 700.
PECOTA’s projections last had the Blue Jays finishing in the second Wild Card spot, which was not the outcome.
The Blue Jays had a much better offseason than last year. Their winter was shaped by near-misses, including failed pursuits of Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Roki Sasaki. But by landing Anthony Santander and Max Scherzer, they’ve started to rewrite the narrative. With two weeks until spring training, they still have the financial flexibility to add another impact bat. Plus, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette possibly entering their final season in Toronto, the urgency to win has never been greater.
Main Photo: © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
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