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Blue Jays – A look back at Ross Atkins and his track record to start the offseason

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No offseason is the same for any team. The same could be said for one’s intentions; one trade or one surprising free agent signing can throw a wrench in anyone’s plans. While we wait for who Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins will acquire first this offseason, I decided to look at the first transaction for each full offseason after taking over from Anthopoulos in 2015. However, he joined in early December of that year – for the purpose of this article, we will start in 2016 when Atkins had his first full season under his belt.

The first moves don’t necessarily define the full picture of offseason plans, they can certainly set the tone.

2016/2017 – Kendrys Morales signed to a 3-year, $33 million deal

If Atkins was looking for a quiet, drama-free first offseason as GM, he wasn’t successful.

Following an ALCS exit, whether or not the Blue Jays would re-sign fan favourites Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion was at the forefront of league-wide speculation. In Encarnacion’s case, he was a piece of a lukewarm free agent market at first base, joining Mitch Moreland and Mark Trumbo (fresh off a 47-home run season) as the primary options. The Blue Jays were aggressive in making Encarnacion an offer early in the offseason, reportedly $70-80 million over four years or the same offer plus a performance-based vesting option for a fifth year.

Amidst several moving pieces through the early stages of free agency, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi pointed out that “critical miscalculations” by both sides wound up playing a factor in a lack of an agreement.

“The Encarnacion camp, despite being told dialogue with other players was set to start, doesn’t feel a divorce is imminent,” Davidi wrote. “The Blue Jays, meanwhile, conclude from the lack of urgency on the other side of the table that there’s at least one other team willing to be in the $80-$100 million range. Both were wrong.”

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On November 18th, 2016, Atkins officially signed 1B/DH Kendrys Morales to a three-year deal. Coupling the fact that Morales was drawing interest from multiple other contending teams with their gut feeling on Encarnacion’s contract desires, the Blue Jays opted to lock up their power bat early in the offseason. Baseball fans, mainly those in Toronto, are split on whose fault the divorce with Encarnacion is. He wound up signing for less guaranteed money but roughly the same AAV with the Cleveland Guardians ($60 million over three years with a fourth-year option) than he would have made with Toronto’s reported initial offer.

Morales played 280 games with the Blue Jays between 2017 and 2018, slashing .249/.318/.442 with 49 home runs and 142 RBIs. Of note, he had a three-homer game on August 31st, 2017, and he set a Blue Jays record with a home run in seven straight games in 2018. His streak was one game short of tying the MLB record.

It should be worth noting that the Blue Jays signed Cuban prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on November 12, 2016, as well.

2017/2018 – Trades for infielders Gift Ngoepe and Aledmys Díaz

While Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak were the clear corner infielders for the Blue Jays heading into 2018, the middle infield depth had its question marks. The team couldn’t count on full seasons out of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis due to injuries, so they looked to the trade market to add to that area.

On November 20th, 2017, the Blue Jays acquired SS Gift Ngoepe from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for cash considerations. Eleven days later, Toronto traded outfield prospect J.B. Woodman to the St. Louis Cardinals for SS Aledmys Díaz. Ngoepe, the first African-born athlete to play in the MLB, cracked the Opening Day roster for Toronto after Tulowitzki was placed on the 60-day IL in the spring of 2018. He played only 13 games with the Blue Jays, recording only one hit, two runs, and a walk across 19 plate appearances. Ngoepe was designated for assignment in May and would ultimately be released from the organization in August of that year.

Diaz was the more established acquisition, especially considering he finished fifth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. He played a still-career-best 130 games in 2018, slashing .263/.303/.453 with 18 home runs and 55 RBIs. He finished fourth on the team in hits (111) and bWAR (2.1) while playing both shortstop and third base. Díaz spent just one campaign in Toronto before being shipped to Houston.

2018/2019 – The Trent Thornton trade

Despite Díaz having a few more years of control left, the Blue Jays had other infield prospects on the rise heading into the next year, so they dealt him to the Houston Astros in exchange for Trent Thornton shortly after the conclusion of the 2018 season. Technically speaking, Atkins and the Jays acquired Julian Merryweather from Cleveland in October – before the Thornton trade – but the actual transaction took place in the summer when Josh Donaldson was moved to the AL Central and it was a ‘player to be named later’ coming the other way.

The Blue Jays were preparing for a rebuilding season, but they also were preparing to send a lot of their top farm talent to the majors. Thornton didn’t become one of the household names in Toronto’s minor league system as his numbers in nearly 50 appearances in triple-A Fresno between 2017 and 2018 weren’t pretty. However, a focal point for the organization during that season was building as much depth as possible, and Thornton was exactly that for the starting pitching.

Injuries to veterans Clayton Richard and Clay Buchholz opened up a spot in the rotation for Thornton to start the 2019 season. In what became a revolving door for pitchers that season, Thornton led the team with 29 starts (32 total appearances) and sported a 4.84 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an 8.7 K/9. He bounced between triple-A Buffalo and Toronto for each of the next four seasons, mainly serving as a reliever whenever he was recalled. Through parts of five seasons, he compiled a 4.77 ERA through 260 1/3 innings.

He was designated for assignment in July 2023 and was ultimately traded to Seattle a matter of days afterwards.

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2019/2020 – Anthony Bass and Chase Anderson acquired

To avoid the aforementioned revolving door of pitchers for the second straight season, Atkins added a pair of veteran arms to Toronto’s pitching staff to start the 2019 winter months.

In more of a subtle move, they claimed reliever Anthony Bass off waivers from the Seattle Mariners in late October. Bass had been well-travelled to that point in his career, and he wound up pitching in a multitude of late-inning roles for the Blue Jays in 2020. He led the team with a career-high seven saves while posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across 26 games.

More on the larger scale of acquisitions, the Blue Jays traded for starting pitcher Chase Anderson on November 4th, 2019, sending prospect Chad Spanberger to the Milwaukee Brewers in return. Anderson had posted solid numbers throughout his first six MLB seasons, but his durability and availability were also attractive traits. Ironically, an oblique strain held Anderson out for the first few weeks of the already-shortened 2020 season, and he struggled to find a rhythm during his one season with Toronto. Anderson made seven starts out of his 10 total appearances, holding a 7.22 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.

Anderson’s acquisition was the first of a string of rotation additions; Tanner Roark, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Shun Yamaguchi were all signed later in December.

2020/2021 – Robbie Ray signs for one year, $8 million

Let’s rewind to the trade deadline during the ’20 season before we get too far here. Ray was traded with the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for lefty reliever Travis Bergen. Ray was having a disastrous season with Arizona, pitching to a 7.84 ERA and a 9.0 BB/9, although the strikeouts were still a prominent part of his game. Putting on a Blue Jays uniform that season didn’t solve all of his problems, but he finished his season on a better note, particularly with the walk rate.

The Blue Jays didn’t waste any time re-signing Ray, inking him to a one-year, $8 million deal in early November in hopes that he could rekindle the successes he held earlier in his career. It was a steal of a contract, as Ray won the American League Cy Young for the 2021 season. Through 32 starts, he posted a 2.84 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, and a 2.4 BB/9. He led the AL in starts, ERA, bWAR, innings pitches, strikeouts, and WHIP, a complete night-and-day difference from how performed just one year prior. It’s safe to say he earned far more than $8 million after that season.

Interestingly enough, the Blue Jays also re-acquired Bergen from the Diamondbacks in February of 2021 in exchange for cash considerations.

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2021/2022 – Pitching, pitching, and more pitching

The Blue Jays capitalized on a pair of minor league deals early in the 2021 offseason with veteran righty David Phelps and southpaw Matt Gage. Phelps made the 26-man roster out of spring training in what was his third separate stint as a member of the Blue Jays. In 2022, he wound up finishing second on the team in total appearances (65), posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Phelps would announce his retirement after that season, completing a 10-year career.

Gage appeared in only 11 games in ’22, but his services were desperately needed for a bullpen in search of quality outings. He pitched a total of 13 innings and allowed only two earned runs to go along with 12 strikeouts. Gage appeared to be a long-term candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, but he bounced between the majors and Triple-A Buffalo for the majority of that season.

The first two major league deals of this offseason were Kevin Gausman (5/$110 million) and Yimi García (2/$11 million), both of which signed in early December. The offense was in good shape, but Atkins didn’t shy away from bolstering the pitching staff during the winter of 2021.

2022/2023 – The Teoscar Hernández trade

Has anybody heard of this one yet?

Over a month after Toronto’s AL Wild Card loss to the Seattle Mariners, the Blue Jays traded fan favourite Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. This trade was arguably the “passing of the torch” if you will, of the Blue Jays moving from an offense-first team to one focused on run prevention (especially with the Daulton Varsho trade to come a month later). With Hernández only one season away from hitting free agency, the Blue Jays looked to capitalize on his value while still putting themselves in a position to compete in 2023.

Macko has yet to make his MLB debut, but he has climbed the ranks of Toronto’s farm system since the trade. Swanson on the other hand had a stellar first season with the Blue Jays, pitching to a 2.97 ERA and 10.1 K/9 over 69 appearances. He missed the first couple of weeks to start last season, but even after that, he struggled out of the gate and was demoted to Triple-A Buffalo in late May. He held a 2.55 ERA across 27 appearances after his return, however, ending his season on the right note.

Hernández slashed .258/.305/.435 with 26 home runs and 93 RBIs in his lone season with the Mariners. There was reported smoke around the Blue Jays re-acquiring Hernandez at the 2023 trade deadline, as well as the following offseason, but nothing came to fruition.

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2023/2024 – The Brendon Little trade & the push for Ohtani

Although it wasn’t a needle mover by any stretch, Toronto’s first move last winter was acquiring Brendon Little from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for cash considerations. Little had only pitched two-thirds of an inning for Chicago, but he got a far more extensive sample size with the Blue Jays in 2024. He started the season in triple-A Buffalo, but injuries to Toronto’s bullpen and Tim Mayza’s release opened up a spot for the young lefty on the major league staff. Through 49 games, Little posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, allowing just a .202/.280/.238 slash line to opposing lefties.

Of course, much of the early part of the’23 offseason was focused on Shohei Ohtani and Atkins and co. unfortunately fell short. Following his signing with the Dodgers and the Little trade, the first transactions that immediately impacted the major league roster were the signings of CF Kevin Kiermaier (1/$10.5 million) and INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2/$15 million).

Kiermaier had one of the best seasons of his career with the Blue Jays in 2023, but his market in the following offseason didn’t reflect that. He re-signed with the Jays and was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in exchange for Ryan Yarbrough after a poor first half of the season at the plate. Kiner-Falefa was a pleasant surprise for the Jays last season, posting a career-best slash line through the first half of the season. The Blue Jays capitalized on his value at the trade deadline, sending him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for hitting prospect Charles McAdoo.

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