The Jays signed Kevin Gausman to a five-year $100 million contract before the 2022 season. In the two seasons we’ve had him, he’s made 93 starts, has a 3.45 ERA in 540.2 innings, 604 strikeouts, and a 7.2 bWAR.
He’s made 31 starts in each of his three seasons with the Jays, which is pretty consistent. 2024 was the worst of the three; he had a 3.83 ERA and a 0.9 bWAR.
And I’m sure you’ll remember that he started the season at “not 100%” and maybe/likely should have started the season on the IL. Unfortunately, the team was short of reasonable replacements for him. Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez weren’t ready to pitch, so Kevin Gausman, at less than 100%, seemed a better choice to take the mound every fifth day than Palol Espino.
That’s always a challenging calculation for a team to make. Would Player X at 75% be better than Player Y at 100%? Gausman had a 4.50 ERA in April. What are the odds that Espino would have had a 4.50 ERA in April if he had been in that spot?
Anyway. Gausman’s second half was much better than his first half:
- First half: 4.50 ERA. Batters hit .261/.309/.444.
- Second half: 2.92 ERA. Batters hit .203/.277/.315.
Which is a good sign for next year. Hopefully, he’ll be 100% healthy at the end of spring training this year.
Gausman is 34 now. He won’t be able to make 31 starts a season at some point. But he didn’t make a lot of starts in his 20s (203 games, 164 starts, 985.1 innings). Since turning 30, he’s been a workhorse (126 starts, 732.2 innings). Guys who don’t throw a lot of innings in their 20s tend to age well. Hopefully, we’ll get a couple more good years out of him.
Gausman gave a grumpy interview at the end of the season, telling us that he was sick of hearing about how talented the team is and how he would like the team to win. He also reminded us that he (and Chris Bassitt) are getting older, so winning has to happen soon.
After being a two-pitch pitcher most of his career, Kevin added a slider a couple of years ago and another this year to give the hitters more to think about.
Steamer thinks Kevin will make 32 starts this season (one more than the 31 in each of the last three seasons, with a 12-11 record, 193 innings (12 more than he had last year) and a 3.89 ERA.
We’ve been fortunate that Gausman has thrown 31 seasons a year. I’m not sure what the odds of that continuing are, but Steamer thinks it will continue for at least one more year.