Alek Manoah is a 27-year-old, right-handed pitcher. He was our first-round draft pick (number 11 overall) in 2019. The pick in front of him was Hunter Bishop (who hasn’t made it to the majors yet), and the pick after him was Brett Baty, who has a -0.7 bWAR in 169 games with the Mets. Manoah has the six-best total bWAR from the first-rounders that year, at 7.3. Bobby Witt Jr. is number one at 14.7, and Adley Rutschman is number two at 13.1 (they were the number two and one pick, respectively).
Alek won’t be on the 40-man much longer. The Jays will put him on the 60-day I as soon as they can after spring training officially starts. He won’t be eligible to return until the end of May, but he won’t return until the second half (at best) of the season as he returns from Tommy John surgery.
I doubt we’ll see him before mid-August at best, and only then if he can show he can contribute. He has two option years left, which means he could come off the IL, finish his rehab time, and stay in Buffalo if the team feels he needs it.
Alek had a great start to his career, going 9-2 in 20 starts in his first season, finishing eighth in Rookie of the Year voting. Then, a better season year, going 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA and finishing third in Cy Young voting. But year three went poorly, with a -1.1 bWAR and Tommy John ruining a bounce-back year four.
The question is: Will we see Alek in a Jays jersey this year?
Steamer thinks so. They are predicting 10 games. 2 starts, 17 innings and a 4.11 ERA.
The question of whether he’ll be any good will likely not be answered until 2026. Whatever he shows us this year will likely not be enough to tell us if he will be good next year.
Beyond that there is a question on whether Alex should be in the rotation or the pen. I think he might me a good long man in the pen, but the usual worry is that we don’t use anyone as a long man.
I hope it all works out for Manoah. He’s a likable guy and seems to be a hard worker.