We have a Saturday night surprise. The Jays have reportedly signed catcher Alejandro Kirk to a five year extension worth $58m.
The deal appears to begin after this season, for which Kirk is signed to a $4.6m arbitration contract. As Ben Nicholson-Smith points out, in effect it buys out his last arbitration year in 2026 for roughly $8m and then pays him 12.5 a year for four years, through his age 31 season.
Kirk is the first of the current crop of homegrown starters to sign an extension. He first came up in 2020, at age 21, and established himself as effectively Danny Jansen’s co-starter in a breakout 2022 campaign. Since Jansen’s departure at last year’s deadline he’s been the full time starter.
Kirk’s calling card coming up was his bat. He’s an excellent contact hitter who controls the strike zone well, and rode a high OBP to a batting line 29% higher than league average in 2022. He’s struggled a bit at the plate the last couple of seasons, mostly due to his power production falling off. His 95 wRC+ over the period is fine for a catcher, but ranks him more as a solid starter than a star. This spring he’s looked excellent, though, and his StatCast numbers suggest he has the capacity to bounce back to being a major offensive contributor.
What’s been a surprise is his defence. Kirk is a non-traditional athlete, to put it mildly, and there were questions about how he’d handle the rigours of his position. Beginning in 2022, though, he refined his receiving and has become one of the best pitch framers in the game. Over the past three seasons, his 18.8 framing runs above average rank sixth in the league. Last year he took another unexpected step forward, improving his throwing and becoming one of the best in the league at controlling the run game. He’s worked himself into being one of the best defensive catchers in the game.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, this looks like a very good deal. Kirk’s $11.6m AAV will make him the fifth best paid catcher in the game, but that reflects a weak period at the position the last few years more than anything. Only J.T. Realmuto and Willson Contreras have hit the open market as clearly above average starters in the past five years. Both got five year deals, Realmuto’s for $115.5m and Contreras’ for $87.5m. Neither is a great comparison, Realmuto being an established star in a way Kirk isn’t, and Contreras being a similar quality player but getting there with a huge power bat and a glove that’s forced him mostly to first base.
There have been two extensions in the past couple years that provide somewhat better comparisons. Sean Murphy signed a six year, $73m after being traded to the Braves following the 2022 season, and Will Smith signed a 10 year, $140m deal with the Dodgers after 2023. Both had steadier track records of premium offensive production than Kirk, although in his best year he proved he could get to their level. Murphy is Kirk’s equal as a defender, but his deal bought out three arbitration years and he was already under control through his age 30 season, so he had much less leverage. Smith was in a more similar contractual situation to Kirk, entering his age 29 season with two arbitration years left. Kirk has a better glove, but Smith is a superior hitter and overall player. Kirk’s deal is reasonably the smallest of the three, but his youth and bargaining position narrow the gap considerably. The Jays are only paying him through years when he’s likely to be in his prime or close. All of which is to say I think his deal compares favourably to extensions for other top catchers that their teams seem pretty happy with.
Kudos to the front office for getting an extension done. Now go do some more.