Two pitchers who will miss the year, another who has yet to formally debut, and an OF for good measure
Moving into the top half, the next section of the 2025 Top 40 features four collegiate draft picks from the 10 rounds in the last few years. It’s worth keeping in mind this is still a very “flat” part of the system in that there’s not much separation between guys 5-10 spots later.
2025: Full List and Index | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
2024: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
20. Connor Cooke, RHP, age 25 (DOB: 11/2/1999), grade: 35+, 2024: 11th
A tenth round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft from the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana-Lafayette, Cooke shot through the system in 2023 in the bullpen after dabbling as a starter in his junior year and his first full pro season in 2022. He blew away high-A and AA batters to the tune of a 40%+ strikeout rate to reach Buffalo late in the season.
Cooke maintained a healthy strikeout rate of 33% in those 10.2 innings, but also issued 10 free passes where he had previously not had an issue with control. What could otherwise be seen as a small hick-up unfortunately carried over into 2024, as he continued to walk almost a batter an inning in the first half while his strikeout rate plunged to 20%.
He missed most of the second half, first on the development list and then the IL, and earlier this week was placed on the IL apparently having had Tommy John surgery earlier this year. While that would bump him back on this list probably a couple sections from when it was first compiled, it does go a long way to explaining what went wrong in 2024.
Pre-injury, Cooke’s fastball sat 95-96 and touched 98 at its best, down to 93-96 later in the 2023 season. His best pitch was a sweeping slider in low/mid-80s with huge horizontal movement, often more than 18 inches. He also has a changeup that in 2023 was flashing plus as a potential this weapon, though it was less consistent. In the first half of 2024, the secondary pitches were not as crisp and had clearly backed up.
19. T.J. Brock, RHP, age 25 (DOB: 8/10/1999), grade: 35+, 2024: 21st
Brock didn’t pitch much in four years at Ohio State, striking out a fair number of batters when he was on the mound but struggling with control being selected in the 6th round of the 2022 draft. He spent the his first two years in the Blue Jays system carving up lower level hitters to the tune of a 35%+ strikeout rate, but with what could generously be characterized as scattershot control.
A pure short-relief profile, Brock was able to do that thanks to plus raw stuff as he has two major league calibre pitches. His fastball is pure gas, a straight four seamer that sits in the mid-90s touching a tick or two higher into the upper 90s. When it’s working, his slider is a hellacious wipeout weapon that piles up swing-and-misses. Not infrequently however, it doesn’t have the shape and gets hangy, with AA hitters had started to exploit at the end of 2023.
Brock missed most of the 2024 season, and in the few appearances he had mid-season in New Hampshire he didn’t look right. He still piled up the strikeouts, but it usually an involved struggle and his slider in particular seemed off, a couple times even looking more like a back-up change-up. He came back for a good run in the AFL and was a Fall-Star, but had Tommy John surgery earlier this year and will miss 2025.
If the stuff comes back in 2026, Brock has the stuff where if it clicked he could be a high-leverage monster anchoring the back of the bullpen (think Jordan Romano). More likely, the control much less command is toward the minimum viability threshold where he’s a tantalizing but ultimately frustrating up/down guy (think Zach Pop).
18. Jace Bohrofen, OF, age 23 (DOB: 10/19/2003), grade: 35+, 2024: 19th
After slashing .318/.436/.612 in a breakout junior year at Arkansas, Bohrofen slipped to the Blue Jays in 6th round of the 2023 Draft and signed at slot. Generally considered a 3rd-4th rounder going in, the intriguing value was bolstered by a professional debut that saw him hit six home runs for Dunedin in 77 PA. Moreover, the demographic of college hitters in the early/mid second day rounds has historically been a surprisingly fertile source of quality and impact regulars. All together, we were quite aggressive in ranking him last year.
It’s against that backdrop that his first full professional season at high-A Vancouver was underwhelming to disappointing. Bohrofen posted a solid .254/.364/.433 line (126 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 485 PA…but that’s essentially the baseline that should be expected of a hitter of his experience against top level college pitching.
After a slow start, he seemed to be on the verge of putting it together with a good stretch in mid-May when the power came in. But it proved to be just a streak, and at various points he would seem completely lost at the plate. He posted a strong 12% walk rate, but that too was more a function of waiting out lower level throwers than a great eye. He’s an excellent fastball hitter but has some swing and miss issues with breaking stuff.
In short, Bohrofen held serve in 2024 but did not show breakout signs of being an under-the-radar future regular find. If plus power doesn’t materialize, with a decent arm and fair speed there’s enough for him to profile in an outfield corner a major leaguer, but more as role player than an everyday or low end regular.
17. Khal Stephen, RHP, age 22 (DOB: 12/21/2002), grade: 35+, 2024: MSU junior
Stephen was selected 59th overall in the 2024 Draft as the Blue Jays second round pick out of Mississippi State, signing about 30% underslot (about slot for 70th overall). Transferring from Purdue after a good summer showing on Cape Cod, he was a workhorse of the Bulldog weekend rotation with a 3.47 ERA and 107/21 K/BB in 96 innings over 16 starts.
Like the other top pitching draftees, Stephen did not debut last year but did appear for a couple innings in the Spring breakout game. His fastball sat 93-95, a touch firmer than reported but it was a short outing, with its calling card being riding life from vertical rise averaging 18 inches. His change-up is considered his next best pitch, with a cutter/tight slider rounding out the arsenal. He only used a couple, and it was just one look, but neither stood out as plus. If it comes together, Stephen’s ceiling is a three pitch durable mid-rotation starter.
One factor bear in mind is the underlying demographic realities. College pitchers are generally considered “safe” and likely to move quickly as more known quantities, but there is more risk than generally perceived. Of 162 college pitchers drafted 40-80th overall from 1987-2009, slightly under half never made it to the majors at all. Another 25%+ were in the “role 30” cup of coffee/replacement level bucket, so about 75% provide almost no major league value.
This causes us to be lighter on Stephen than elsewhere, and rank him below some other guys with less pedigree until we can see him professionally in 2025. With about 5% in each of the 30+/35/40 role buckets and a ~10% tail in the other impact buckets, the expected value only approaches 2 WAR unless one is confident the Jays got a steal. 2025 for Stephen will be about showing he’s likelier to end up in top 25% than the bottom 75%.